After January's strong performance, Fundstrat's Tom Lee is starting to wonder if his S&P 500 price goal of 5,200 for the end of the year is too low.
Since the beginning of the year, Lee has been among Wall Street's most optimistic analysts. In 2023, when his peers were fretting over a possible recession, he perfectly predicted the market's bull run.
Despite a robust Santa Claus surge, the stock market had a rough start to the year, with negative returns generated in the first five trading days of January, according to Lee. If those trading signs become negative, it usually means equities will have a rough year ahead.
Lee claims that the so-called January Barometer has reversed both negative trade signs, as the S&P 500 is expected to increase more than 2% in January. "The full year tends to play out in the first part of the year, meaning what happens in January tends to tell us a lot about the year," said Lee.
Lee did the math and came up with thirteen times (including this month) where the S&P 500 had a positive return in January and a prior-year return of more than fifteen percent since 1950. After that, the returns for the entire year were phenomenal, with a win ratio of 92% and a median change of 16%. "I think this is confirming we're on track for double digit gains in 2024, so a very good sign," said Lee.
In 2018, when the Federal Reserve overly tightened financial conditions, sending markets down 20% in a few weeks, the only bad year for stocks in this scenario. On this occasion, Lee noted that the Federal Reserve has shifted into an easing stance, and that interest rate reduction are imminent.
Lee has already predicted that the S&P 500 would conclude 2024 at 5,200, but if his predictions of further gains pan out, the index may soar to 5,500 by the end of the year.
Stocks are poised for a fantastic year ahead if you believe the Federal Reserve is not making a policy mistake. Maybe we're off by a small margin; we're estimating 5,200. According to Lee, the range might be 5,400 to 5,500 now.
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